The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and—as expected—it reflected increasing inflation.
In May, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8% in April.
However, over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 5% before seasonal adjustment; this was the largest 12-month increase since an increase of 5.4% for the period ending August 2008. The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.8% over the last 12-months, the largest increase since June 1992
Increases for common consumer goods included:
- Cars and trucks continued to rise sharply, increasing 7.3 percent.
- Food increased 0.4%, which was the same increase as in April.
- Energy was unchanged in May, with a decline in gasoline which offset increases in electricity and natural gas.
- Many items continued to increase, including household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, airline fares, and apparel. Medical care fell slightly, one of the few major declines in May.
“The all-items index rose 5% for the 12 months ending May,” the Bureau said. “It has been trending up every month since January when the 12-month change was 1.4%. The energy index rose 28.5% over the last 12-months, and the food index increased 2.2%.”
COLA confusion
The CPI is the basis for annual cost-of-living (COLA) adjustments for Social Security, and the latest data raises further questions of just how significant the 2022 jump will be.
In May, The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) released its first forecast of the 2022 COLA after analyzing the April CPI data and had it pegged at 4.7%—which would be more than three times higher than the 2021 COLA.
The latest release could push estimates even higher. Still, with such a high current level of inflation volatility, TSCL stressed the forecast could change several times before the official COLA is announced in October 2021.
The annual Social Security COLA increase in January of 2021 saw benefits rise by just 1.3% and only added about $20 per month to the average benefit amount seniors are receiving this year. This follows a 1.6% percent COLA for 2020, a 2.8% COLA for 2019, and a 2% COLA for 2018.
With more than 20 years serving financial markets, John Sullivan is the former editor-in-chief of Investment Advisor magazine and retirement editor of ThinkAdvisor.com. Sullivan is also the former editor of Boomer Market Advisor and Bank Advisor magazines, and has a background in the insurance and investment industries in addition to his journalism roots.
