The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the official 2026 cost of living adjustment (COLA) in 16 days on October 15—but that could be delayed if a looming government shutdown happens, as the federal agency that is responsible for reporting the data used to calculate the COLA (The Bureau of Labor Statistics) would “completely cease operations” as part of a shutdown.
“Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released. All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease.“
DOL contingency plan
While leaders in Congress from both parties are meeting with President Trump at the White House on Monday afternoon to work toward avoiding it, a federal government shutdown will begin at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025, without congressional action.
And if a shutdown isn’t averted, the Department of Labor is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout, as the vast majority of employees would be furloughed.
In a contingency plan released Sept. 26, the department said it was looking “to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse.”
The Labor Department is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout should the U.S. government suspend operations.
In a contingency plan released Friday, the department said it was looking “to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse.”
The BLS, an agency within the DOL, has several key reports scheduled that provide important data about the direction of inflation and the economy at large. Among them is the monthly Consumer Price Index release, with the next (and most important for Social Security COLA-watchers) release scheduled for Oct. 15. But if a shutdown occurs—even if it is resolved within a few days—it could delay the official 2026 COLA announcement.
From the DOL’s 73-page contingency plan released last Friday:
Brief Summary of significant agency activities that will cease during a lapse: BLS will suspend all operations. Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released. All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease. The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse. Brief Summary of any change in activities if lapse is prolonged: The releases of economic data will likely be delayed if a lapse is prolonged… A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the Cost of Living Adjustment announcement by the Social Security Administration.
According to the contingency plan, 2054 of the 2055 BLS employees will be furloughed in the event of a shutdown, with only Acting BLS Commissioner William J. Wiatrowski still “working” during a shutdown, as the designated person responsible for developing, implementing, and adjusting agency lapse plan. The BLS Commissioner is Presidentially Appointed, Senate confirmed (PAS) and not subject to furlough.
EBSA staff would also be furloughed
The vast majority of Employee Benefits Security Administration employees would also be furloughed during a government shutdown. Per the DOL contingency plan, 504 of 668 EBSA employees would be furloughed while the remaining 164 would not be subject to furlough as they would remain as necessary to perform activities implied by law, to discharge the President’s constitutional duties and powers, or necessary to protect life and property.
“EBSA would cease all operations not detailed above unless funded via previous years appropriations. Among the specific activities that would cease are our regulatory and research activities, audits, compliance assistance, and IT support not dedicated to excepted activities,” the contingency plan states. “There will be no change in activities if the lapse is prolonged. Absent any extension, the non-lapse funding will expire at the end of Fiscal Year 2025 and the Nonlapse funding source entries will be ceased.”
SEE ALSO:
• It’s Official: 2025 Social Security COLA Set at 2.5%
• 2026 Social Security COLA Projection Holds at 2.7%
• Private Sector Workers See Boost in Retirement Plan Accessibility