Americans—and especially older people—are not on board with cutting Social Security benefits in the face of the program’s impending insolvency.
The new findings, revealed today in a March poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, shows 88% of adults over the age of 45 oppose cutting Social Security benefits compared to 70% of those under 45.
The poll results come on the heels of last week’s release of the Social Security Board of Trustees annual report, which finds that absent Congressional action, we are now just one decade away from the Social Security trust fund becoming depleted, with only 77% of benefits payable by 2033. That would mean a 23% benefit cut, or a roughly $5,000 cut in annual benefits for a typical retiree.
As The Heritage Foundation points out, if nothing is done, anyone who is 56 or younger today will not reach Social Security’s normal retirement age of 67 before the program runs out of money. Current law requires that Social Security benefits come from within the program, so once the trust fund runs dry, Social Security will only be able to pay as much in benefits as it receives in taxes.
The AP-NORC poll shows public opposition to stripping away either Social Security or Medicare benefits remains high despite the realization that the programs are well down the road to insolvency. Just 6% of adults favor reducing the size of Social Security benefits while 79% oppose.
Raising the age of Social Security eligibility by three years to 70 is also unpopular, challenging an idea being floated by some Republican leaders to help keep the program solvent. Three-quarters of Americans say they oppose raising the eligibility age from 67 to 70.
A majority of the public—58%—supports increasing taxes on households earning more than $400,000 to pay for Medicare, which echoes a plan proposed by President Joe Biden in March. The poll shows a political divide on doing so: 75% of Democrats support the tax but Republicans are closely divided, with 42% in favor, 37% opposed and 20% supporting neither.
Overall confidence in Social Security and Medicare is low, with only 17% of the public extremely or very confident that Social Security or Medicare will be there for them when they need it while about half have little or no confidence. And only 10% of adults under 45 have much confidence they will receive Social Security or Medicare benefits when the time comes.
An AP story about the poll quotes Paul Ginsburg, a professor of health policy at the University of Southern California, saying most legislators are not taking dire warnings about the future of Social Security and Medicare seriously, and are instead proposing short-term solutions to keep the programs extended just a few more years.
“It’s particularly problematic for Social Security,” Ginsburg said. “In Social Security, you have a situation where if you make changes now, they can be quite modest. If you wait until 2035, they’re going to be draconian.”
AARP calls for action
AARP released a statement from CEO Jo Ann Jenkins following the release of the Trustees report saying Congress must act to find solutions to ensure Social Security and Medicare will be there for the next generation and into the future.
“This is a promising time when leaders from both parties have committed to protecting these vital programs. It will take hard work to find bipartisan agreement, but today’s report shows how essential it is that leaders in Washington come together for the good of the country,” Jenkins said. “Congress must take its responsibility to protect Social Security and Medicare seriously, by developing a comprehensive plan and doing so in a way that is accountable and fully transparent to the American public.
Bipartisan group working on plan
A bipartisan group of senators, including Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Angus King (I-ME), John Cornyn (R-TX) and Mitt Romney (R-UT), have been meeting regularly in recent months to talk about proposing solutions to the crisis.
Cassidy and King released a statement on Monday about the ongoing discussions in the wake of the Trustees report.
“If we come together now, we can preserve and protect the retirement security of all Americans now and long into the future,” the statement said. “Addressing this existential threat is a complicated math challenge and we are hearing out all possible pieces of that equation—like Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill did in 1983—and leaning on a proven financial model to do so. Though there have been some incomplete and somewhat alarmist reports published, it’s important to look at all the components of a solution together, especially in the context of the crisis we face if nothing is done.”
The statement went on to say there are dozens of considerations being weighed to protect Social Security, including locking early retirement at 62, an ironclad protection for lower-wage workers, and seeking avenues to increase benefits immediately.
“Under what we are discussing, millions would immediately receive more, and no one would receive less,” the statement reads. “These conversations are ongoing, and we welcome feedback and additional components. As soon as we have a fully developed plan, we’ll release it for discussion and debate. Taking action is our only option; inaction now will only make it harder later. We choose to save, strengthen, and secure Social Security.”
In a separate statement on March 1, Cassidy noted that choosing to do nothing guarantees a 24% cut in Social Security.
“The President needs to show leadership by engaging with Democrats and Republicans. While Biden’s inflation has sped up the insolvency timeline, the greatest threat to Social Security remains politicians who choose to do nothing,” Cassidy said.
SEE ALSO:
• Social Security Trust Fund Projected to be Depleted in a Decade
• Latest Bill Pushes for Increased Social Security Earnings Limit
• Older Adults Greatly Underestimate Social Security Benefits: NBER Research