Pandemic Leads to Big Spike in Social Security Beneficiary Deaths

Nearly 400,000 more Social Security beneficiaries died in 2020 than in 2019 according to newly released information, highlighting the devastating impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on elderly and disabled and/or immunocompromised Americans in particular.

The data tabulated by the Social Security Administration shows a 17% increase in 2020 beneficiary deaths compared to 2019, according to an Aug. 24 opinion piece on The Hill by David A. Weaver, Ph.D., an economist and retired federal employee who has authored a number of studies on Social Security.

The data show double-digit percentage increases, year-over-year, for all beneficiary groups including retirees, spouses, widows, and the disabled. A relatively small beneficiary group (Disabled Adult Children) had the highest percentage increase (26%) in the number of deaths from 2019 to 2020. These adults that have been disabled since childhood are subject to specific conditions or circumstances that make them particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, such as residing in long-term care facilities.

Weaver points out that federal researchers, who have access to the raw data, could potentially unlock death patterns in the data that would help policymakers understand the probable effects of COVID-19 on groups with different disabling conditions and socioeconomic status.

Beyond research, and perhaps of more importance, Weaver said, the new data highlight the need for the Biden Administration to communicate with Social Security beneficiaries regarding developments in vaccine policy.

“For example, the CDC recently developed new recommendations about vaccines for immunocompromised individuals. Many of these individuals will, no doubt, be on SSA’s disability rolls,” Weaver said, adding that some effort to communicate with these beneficiaries about the new guidelines would be in the public’s interest.

The Center for Disease Control’s (CDC) mortality data, which includes all individuals and not just Social Security beneficiaries, show about 500,000 more deaths occurred in the U.S. in 2020 than in 2019. The CDC estimates approximately 375,000 deaths in 2020 were due to COVID-19.

Impact on Social Security trust funds

While it admittedly feels awkward and petty to think about the financial effect on the Social Security trust funds in light of the hardships so many families are experiencing due to ongoing pandemic-related deaths, it remains a consideration nonetheless.

Could the pandemic actually improve the long-term solvency of the Social Security trust funds? Short answer: unlikely.

The increased mortality rate (skewed towards those of retirement age) reduces total benefits paid out of the trust fund, but the impact is offset by any number of factors, including an increase in Social Security benefit applications from people who lost jobs or retired earlier than anticipated due to the pandemic.

Other potential factors at work include:

Much more light could be shed on this subject via updated figures when the 2021 Social Security Trustees Report finally gets released by the Treasury Department. That annual report, which is now nearly five months overdue, will include a much-anticipated update on the current state and long-term viability of the Social Security trust funds.

Depletion of the trust funds (forecast to happen by 2035 in the 2020 Trustees Report), unless Congress acts, would lead to about a 20% reduction in annual payments to beneficiaries.

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