Top 10 Retirement Regions Impacted by ‘Silver Tsunami’

John Sullivan

5 years ago

A flood of homes will come on the market in the next 20 years as Baby Boomers age enough to affect local economies in traditional retirement areas, new analysis from Zillow has found.

The real estate and rental website notes that about a third of America’s homes are owned by those age 60 and older, and the “Silver Tsunami is estimated to hit in earnest as the number of seniors who pass away each year rises during the 2020s and 2030s.”

In the decade from 2007 to 2017, roughly 730,000 U.S. homes were released into the market each year by seniors aged 60 or older.

From 2017 to 2027 and from 2027 to 2037 that number is set to rise to 920,000 and 1.17 million per year, respectively. This means more than 27% of today’s owner-occupied homes will become available by 2037.

“While virtually all areas will feel the effects to some degree—between one-fifth and one-third of the current owner-occupied housing stock was impacted in every metro analyzed—this wave won’t hit all at once and won’t strike all markets equally,” Zillow adds.

Retirement areas like Florida and Arizona are likely to feel the sharpest impact. If demand erodes because fewer people choose to retire there in the coming years, those areas might end up with excess housing.

Also heavily impacted will be regions like the Rust Belt, which saw younger people move away in recent decades, leaving older generations to make up a larger share of the population.

Some regions will be far less affected. These include Salt Lake City, where a much smaller share of homeowners are in their golden years, as well as Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Houston—all of which are vibrant but relatively inexpensive places that tend to attract younger residents looking for an affordable alternative to expensive coastal cities.

10 most impacted areas

The following are the top 10 markets that will have the most homes released to the market by seniors (on a percentage basis):

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.

Florida Man present somewhere in this photo.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
1	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.	15.2%	33.2%

Tucson-Nogales, Ariz.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
2	Tucson-Nogales, Ariz.	14.8%	32.6%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, Fla.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
3	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, Fla.	15.2%	31.9%

Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, Fla.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
4	Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, Fla.	14.4%	31.9%

Dayton-Springfield-Sidney, Ohio.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
5	Dayton-Springfield-Sidney, Ohio.	14.3%	31.3%

Knoxville-Morristown-Sevierville, Tenn.

Tennessee, Tennessee, there ain’t no place I’d rather be.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
6	Knoxville-Morristown-Sevierville, Tenn.	13.5%	30.8%

Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, Penn.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
7	Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, Penn.	13.6%	30.2%

Cleveland-Akron-Canton, Ohio.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
8	Cleveland-Akron-Canton, Ohio.	13.2%	29.9%

Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, New Mexico.

I knew I shoulda made that left turn at Albuquerque.

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
9	Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, New Mexico.	12.7%	29.6%

Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, North Carolina

	Metro area	By 2027	By 2037
10	Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, North Carolina	13.3%	29.5%