Much has been written about America being in the midst of “Peak 65,” with more than 4.1 million Americans turning 65 each year through 2027. What used to be 10,000 Baby Boomers hitting the retirement milestone per day over the past decade is now over 11,200 every day, reports the Alliance for Lifetime Income.
“The number of states and counties where older adults outnumber children is on the rise.”
Lauren Bowers, U.S. Census Bureau
But now new data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that from 2023 to 2024, America’s population age 65 and older rose by 3.1% (to 61.2 million) while the population under age 18 decreased by 0.2% (to 73.1 million). From 2020 to 2024, the older population grew by 13.0%, significantly outpacing the 1.4% growth of working-age adults (ages 18 to 64), while the number of children declined by 1.7%.
According to the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 Population Estimates released June 26, the U.S. median age reached a new record high of 39.1, up 0.1 years from 2023, and up 0.6 years from 38.5 in 2020. The share of the population age 65 and older has steadily increased from 12.4% in 2004 to 18.0% in 2024, and the share of children has declined from 25.0% to 21.5%. Older adults now outnumber children in 11 states (up from just three in 2020) and nearly half of U.S. counties.
“Children still outnumber older adults in the United States, despite a decline in births this decade,” said Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch. “However, the gap is narrowing as Baby Boomers continue to age into their retirement years. In fact, the number of states and counties where older adults outnumber children is on the rise, especially in sparsely populated areas.”
Ongoing growth among the older population, coupled with persistent annual declines in the population under age 18 has reduced the size difference between these two age groups from just over 20 million in 2020 to just below 12 million in 2024.
As recently as 2020, there were just three states where older adults outnumbered children: Maine, Vermont, and Florida. By 2024, this number had increased to 11, with Delaware, Hawaii, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia joining their ranks.
Similarly, from 2020 to 2024, the number of U.S. metro areas with more older adults than children increased from 58 to 112. This represents nearly 30% of the nation’s 387 metro areas. Additionally, in 2024, three metro areas with at least 1 million people (Cleveland; Providence-Warwick, RI-MA; and Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT) had more older people than younger people for the first time.
In 2020, 31.3% (or 983) of the nation’s 3,144 counties had more older adults than children. This figure increased to almost 45% (1,411 counties) in 2024. In both years, most of these counties had small populations and were located outside of metro and micro areas.
Implications for retirement plan market
The rapid growth of the retiree population shown in the new Census Bureau data—coinciding with the “Peak 65” phenomenon—carries significant implications for the workplace retirement plan market.
For instance, more Americans are entering retirement drawdown mode, increasing the demand for decumulation strategies, including in-plan retirement income solutions.
The shrinking base of working-age contributors compared to growth in the retiree population also points to a growing imbalance in retirement funding dynamics, with fewer younger workers supporting more retirees—a concern not only for an already-troubled Social Security program, but also for defined contribution plans reliant on continuous inflows.
Increased adoption of auto-enrollment and auto-escalation in 401(k)s to boost participation and contribution rates among younger and mid-career workers can help to offset the demographic challenges presented by the aging population, as can shifting retirement saving education efforts toward underserved demographic groups, including younger employees, minorities, and gig workers.
More new findings
The Vintage 2024 Population Estimates also included additional demographic breakdowns of the U.S. population. Among them:
• While the U.S. median age was 39.1, regionally, the West (38.4) and South (38.8) had the lowest median ages in 2024; the Northeast had the highest (40.6), followed by the Midwest (39.3).
• Maine’s population in 2024 was the oldest, with a median age of 44.8; Utah’s was the youngest (32.4).
• The median age across all counties in 2024 ranged between 20.9 and 68.1; 74% (2,340 of 3,144) had a median age at or above the median age for the nation.
• Women outnumbered men by 3.4 million, making up 50.5% of the U.S. population in 2024.
• Between 2023 and 2024, the Asian population grew the fastest (4.2%), followed by the Hispanic or Latino population (2.9%). The Asian population experienced its largest gains in California, followed by Texas; however, Texas’ annual growth rate (6.9%) was substantially faster than California’s (2.7%).
• From 2023 to 2024, the Hispanic or Latino population increased by 1.9 million; this gain was larger than the change for all other race and ethnicity groups combined. While the Hispanic or Latino share of the U.S. total population reached 20% for the first time in 2024, only nine states and 457 counties were at least 20% Hispanic.
• The White population was the only population that dropped, declining 0.1% between 2023 and 2024.
SEE ALSO:
• The Peak of Peak 65: Record Number to Reach Traditional Retirement Age in 2025
• Plan Sponsors Embrace Proactive Strategies for Better Participant Outcomes