There was little change in the 2026 Social Security COLA forecasts from the two sources providing monthly updates, based on the latest inflation data released this morning.
Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson kept her forecast at 2.2% for the 2026 COLA, while The Senior Citizens League bumped its forecast up slightly from 2.2% to 2.3%. Both sources noted that their forecasts could be headed up later this year due to potential inflationary impacts from President Trump’s tariffs.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)—from which the next year’s COLA is determined—increased 2.2% percent over the last 12 months, down from 3.0% in January and 2.7% in February. For the month, the CPI-W increased 0.3% prior to seasonal adjustment.
That led Johnson to keep her monthly 2026 COLA forecast steady at 2.2%—for now.
She said her forecast may underestimate the final 2026 COLA because Trump Administration tariffs would raise consumer prices. While most of the tariffs were temporarily paused, a trade war with China or higher tariffs with other trading partners, would cause higher inflation. That could push COLAs higher as well, Johnson said.
“Higher sticky consumer prices, home repairs, changes in health are forcing older consumers to spend more from savings at a faster rate, at the same time extreme stock market volatility pummels the value of retirement account holdings,” Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said Thursday. “Market convulsions like what we are seeing now can spook consumers causing them to put off discretionary purchases, especially bigger ones. This could mean slower economic growth or even a recession.”
If the economy were to slide into a recession, from an economic downturn, Johnson noted that could impact Social Security’s funding and potential insolvency date. Widespread layoffs—including layoffs from federal jobs as well as private sector job losses—reduce the payroll taxes that fund about 90% of program benefits. That said, payroll employment still grew slightly in March and unemployment is 4.2% according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Tariffs front and center in TSCL forecast
After yesterday’s tariff announcement and the subsequent 90-day pause (with the exception of China) that sent the stock market soaring, The Senior Citizens League made the minimal adjustment to its forecast, noting its model’s prediction this month is 2.3%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than last month’s prediction and 0.2 percentage points lower than the last COLA of 2.5%.
When the Trump administration announced sweeping new tariffs on imports on April 2, the stock market retreated, TSCL noted in its release. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.8%. Less than a week later, the administration paused the tariffs for most countries for 90 days while further raising them on China.
“Along with most economists, TSCL expects the new tariffs to lead to higher inflation. Our COLA model will likely reflect that in coming months as the CPI-W and other economic indicators respond to the new import tax policies,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said.
“Placing broad-based tariffs on goods from numerous countries could have a profoundly negative impact on the daily lives of seniors, including the costs of drugs and medical equipment that many seniors rely on. It is also highly likely that import taxes will keep food prices high, increase auto insurance costs, and contribute to higher inflation, among other effects,” she added.
“While TSCL supports President Trump’s goals of returning manufacturing and strategic production to American shores, we can’t accept the short-term consequences for seniors. We call on the administration to immediately make exceptions to the tariffs for drugs, medical equipment, and essential everyday goods that many seniors already struggle to afford,” she added.
Official COLA to be set in October
It’s important to remember that these COLA forecasts are preliminary and subject to change, as the official COLA is determined by the Social Security Administration (SSA) each October, based on final cumulative third-quarter CPI-W data. If the average CPI-W reading from the third quarter of 2025 is higher than in 2024, inflation has occurred and beneficiaries will receive a raise. The Social Security Administration is expected to officially announce the 2026 COLA by Oct. 15, 2025.
COLAs can vary widely from year to year. While the average COLA raise since 2010 is approximately 2.4%, there was no COLA raise at all in 2010, 2011 and 2016, and beneficiaries saw a 41-year high raise of 8.7% in 2023 as inflation soared coming out of the pandemic. There was a 3.2% COLA in 2024, and a 2.5% COLA this year.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article has been updated as of April 10 to reflect the latest Social Security COLA forecasts. Previous coverage appears on the following page.
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