Compared to 2016, Social Security benefits today are only worth about 86.3 cents on the dollar, having lost nearly 14% of their buying power, according to new research released today by The Senior Citizens League.
TSCL’s 2026 Loss of Buying Power study says the 13.7% decline is due to Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLAs) that are not keeping up with real-world inflation. Social Security payments would need to rise by 15.7%, or $295.85 per month for the average beneficiary, to recover the lost value.
The estimate is based on a statistical analysis comparing TSCL’s own price index, based on real-world prices for seniors shopping as economically as possible. The price index for this year’s study features 70 items representing all major categories of products and services included in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners, the price index to determine Social Security’s COLA.
“We’ve updated our methodology throughout the years to make the Loss of Buying Power more reproducible and accurate, but the takeaway remains the same: The Consumer Price Index fails to capture Social Security beneficiaries’ real-world experience of inflation,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said. “They’ve told us about this issue themselves through our survey research, but this report puts real numbers to the problem.”
The prices hit hardest by inflation over the last 10 years include major upticks in housing and transportation. Homes, new cars, used cars, vehicle ownership costs, and rent all made the top 10 items whose price most increased by true value from 2016-2026. Of these, the only item whose price didn’t rise faster than inflation overall was the average used car price.
Notably, this does not include the very recent spike in gas/oil prices, which were reflected in TSCL’s newly updated monthly 2027 Social Security COLA forecast—now at 3.9% after CPI figures from April were released this morning. That’s up 1.1 percentage points from both the actual 2026 COLA of 2.8% and TSCL’s forecast from last month of 2.8% for 2027.
According to the organization, the average benefits check for retired workers would increase by $81.17—from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33—if the official 2027 COLA that will be finalized in October were to land at 3.9%.
And that would still not help seniors keep pace with inflation. In its 2025 Senior Survey, available here, two-thirds of the Census-weighted sample of 1,920 retirees expressed dissatisfaction with the amount of their Social Security benefits. Even more, 79%, said they believe inflation in 2024 far exceeded the 2025 COLA of 2.5% that was supposed to account for price changes that year.
“Our research shows that the average senior gets by on less than $2,000 a month and that 39% of them rely on Social Security for 100% of their income.”
TSCL’s Shannon Benton
TSCL also estimates that lower-income seniors experience more inflation than measured by the CPI-W, the index used to calculate the COLA. TSCL’s index, which sourced the most affordable prices possible for all items not reported as national averages, measured 10-year inflation at 43.55%, while the CPI-W measures it at 37.60%.
“The fact is that inflation hits seniors differently than the rest of the population for two main reasons: Their income doesn’t grow like the rest of the population’s does, and their budgets look different,” Benton said. “Our research shows that the average senior gets by on less than $2,000 a month and that 39% of them rely on Social Security for 100% of their income.”
She added that seniors also tend to allocate more of their budgets to goods and services that experience the most inflation, including housing, transportation, and medical care.
The full 2026 Loss of Buying Power report is available for free download here.
SEE ALSO:
• Social Security COLA Forecasts Skyrocket to 3.9% and 4.2%
• Busting Social Security Misconceptions with TSCL