Social Security COLA Forecasts Skyrocket to 3.9% and 4.2%
Forecasts for the 2027 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) saw massive spikes as seniors feel the financial strain caused by rising gasoline prices, inflation, and increasing costs of goods and services.
The Senior Citizens League’s (TSCL) latest report predicts a 3.9% jump, up 1.1 percentage point from this year’s COLA of 2.8%. According to the organization, the average benefits check for retired workers would increase by $81.17, from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33.
While the rise in average benefits would be welcomed by seniors, many continue to note that the cost of essentials greatly outpaces their monthly budgets. According to the TSCL, most retirees agree that rising costs for services and goods like Medicare premiums, housing costs, utilities, and grocery prices have eaten up any gains they’ve received.
“For retirees living on fixed incomes, the costs that matter most, especially healthcare, housing, utilities, and insurance, continue to rise faster than prices in the rest of the economy, silently wrenching seniors dry,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “This makes the national affordability conversation even more important than ever.”
Independent Social Security and Medicare Policy Analyst Mary Johnson forecasted an even higher 2027 Social Security COLA at 4.2%, driven by climbing energy costs.
Today’s inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)—the formula used to calculate Social Security’s COLA—rose 3.9% over the last 12 months, fueled by ongoing gas price increases as the U.S. continues to rage a war in the Middle East.
The index for energy increased 3.8% in April after skyrocketing 10.9% in March—its largest increase since February 2005. For the month of April, the index increased 0.9% prior to seasonal adjustment.
Data from AAA shows that average gasoline prices keep edging up—now costing the average consumer over $4.50 per gallon.
The BLS’ all items index increased 3.8% over the last 12 months, marking inflation’s highest levels in almost three years.
“This represents the highest rate of inflation since 2022, and a potentially significant erosion in many consumers’ standard of living,” said Johnson.
Prior to the start of the war, Johnson estimated a 2027 COLA of 1.2% based on January 2026 data. However, recent rising costs have caused her to reexamine the projection, she said. For example, according to the latest BLS data, the cost of refilling residential heating oil reached 54.3%. “Many older consumers living on fixed incomes have to finance their heating bills over a 12 – month period as it is,” Johnson notes. Massive jumps like this mean big, unexpected adjustments to those monthly payments for consumers, but it doesn’t stop there.”
Other examples of recent increasing costs include on items like tomatoes (39.7%), coffee (18.5%), and fresh vegetables (11.5%).
Today’s announcement marks five months before the official Social Security COLA is released. The official COLA is determined by inflation in the third quarter of the year, in July, August, and September. The next COLA update will be announced on June 10.
Amanda Umpierrez is the Managing Editor of 401(k) Specialist magazine. She is a financial services reporter with nearly a decade of experience and a passion for telling stories and reporting news.