The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100% of total scheduled benefits until 2033, according to the Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports, released today by the Treasury Department. While that date is unchanged from last year’s report, it should be noted that the OASI depletion date advanced by about 3 calendar quarters, relative to last year’s projection.
Absent Congressional action, in 2033 the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77% of total scheduled benefits—meaning a 23% benefit cut.
The annual report also found that if the OASI Trust Fund and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund projections were combined, the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100% of total scheduled benefits until 2034, which is one year earlier than reported last year.
At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become depleted and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 81% of scheduled benefits. The report notes that the two funds could not actually be combined unless there were a change in the law, but the combined projection of the two funds is frequently used to indicate the overall status of the Social Security program.
“This data underscores the need for lawmakers to take action to support the long-term viability of these programs.”
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent
Today’s report shows reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds declined by $67 billion in 2024 to a total of $2.72 trillion. The total annual cost of the program is projected to exceed total annual income in 2025, and remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period.
“Social Security and Medicare are vital programs that support tens of millions of Americans across the country,” said U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. “This data underscores the need for lawmakers to take action to support the long-term viability of these programs. The Treasury Department is committed to providing more efficient and accountable payment services to America’s retirees and those who depend on Medicare.”
The new 2025 report found the DI Trust Fund is projected to be able to pay 100% percent of total scheduled benefits through at least 2099, the last year of this report’s projection period. Last year’s report projected that the DI Trust Fund would be able to pay scheduled benefits through at least 2098, the last year of that report’s projection period.
“To ensure we serve the public and deliver high-quality service to the 185 million people who work and pay payroll taxes for Social Security and the 70 million beneficiaries who will receive benefits during 2025, the financial status of the trust funds remains a top priority for the Trump Administration,” said Commissioner of Social Security Frank Bisignano. “Congress, along with the Social Security Administration and others committed to eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse, must work together to protect and strengthen the trust funds for the millions of Americans who rely on it—now and in the future—for a secure retirement or in the event of a disability.”
A Fact Sheet released today along with a press release about the report said the projected long-term finances of the combined OASDI fund worsened this year primarily due to three factors:
• “First, the Social Security Fairness Act, as enacted on January 5, 2025, repealed the Windfall Elimination and Government Pension Offset provisions of the Social Security Act. The repeal of these provisions increased projected Social Security benefit levels for some workers, relative to projected benefit levels in last year’s report. The impact of this legislation on the OASI Trust Fund was the primary contributor to the change in the combined OASDI fund depletion date this year.”
• “Second, the Trustees extended the assumed period of recovery from historically low levels of fertility by 10 years. The long-term fertility rate is reached in 2050, compared to 2040 as assumed in last year’s report.”
• “Third, the Trustees lowered the assumed long-term share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that accrues to workers in the form of labor compensation.”
If a 23% benefit cut happened today…
As was recently reported by 401(k) Specialist, monthly OASI Social Security benefit checks are set to pass a historic milestone in June 2025, as the check amount for the average U.S. worker is expected to exceed $2,000 for the first time in the program’s history, dating back to its creation in 1935.
If a 23% benefit cut were to be implemented right now, a $2,000 monthly benefit check would be reduced by $460, taking it down to $1,540. That would represent an annual decrease of Social Security benefits of $5,520.
Calls to action
“Hardworking Americans shouldn’t have to worry about receiving the retirement benefits they’ve earned. Unfortunately, this report shows the combined Social Security trust funds will be depleted by 2034. As President Trump continues reining in wasteful spending, citizens who’ve paid into Social Security will be able to enjoy the secure retirement they deserve,” Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer said.
“Today’s reports from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees confirm what we’ve long known: These cornerstone programs face serious and growing financial challenges that demand bipartisan leadership and urgent attention,” said Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center, in a statement released today. “Both trust funds are on unsustainable paths. Without action, millions will face reduced benefits and greater uncertainty.”
Spellings went on to say that Congress has the opportunity to solve these problems with smart, gradual, and fair reforms that leaders in both parties can support.
“But the longer we wait, the fewer and more difficult the options become. Policymakers must come together now—across party lines—to strengthen and modernize Social Security and Medicare for future generations.”
Social Security Works President Nancy Altman also released a statement today after the release of the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report.
“This report shows that Social Security is fully affordable, costing only about 6% of GDP at the end of the 21st century. It has a modest funding shortfall, which is still years away. There is no question Congress will act to avert the shortfall, as it always has in the past. The question is what Congress will do,” Altman said.
SEE ALSO:
• Nearly 22 Million Seniors Live on Social Security Alone: TSCL
• Social Security Payments Set to Hit Major Milestone in June
• Social Security Solvency Clock Ticking as Wait Drags On for 2025 Trustees Report
• Latest 2026 Social Security COLA Forecasts Match 2025’s Increase
Veteran financial services industry journalist Brian Anderson joined 401(k) Specialist as Managing Editor in January 2019. He has led editorial content for a variety of well-known properties including Insurance Forums, Life Insurance Selling, National Underwriter Life & Health, and Senior Market Advisor. He has always maintained a focus on providing readers with timely, useful information intended to help them build their business.