Latest 2027 Social Security COLA Forecast Holds at 2.8%
Key Takeaways: TSCL forecasts 2.8% for 2027; Mary Johnson estimates 1.7% but warns of energy spikes; Social Security insolvency moved up to 2032.
Based on updated Consumer Price Index inflation figures released this morning, The Senior Citizens League is holding its monthly 2027 Social Security COLA forecast steady at 2.8%—same as last month, and identical to the 2026 raise of 2.8%.
| Source | 2027 COLA Estimate | Change from Last Month |
|---|---|---|
| The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) | 2.8% | Holding Steady |
| Mary Johnson (Independent Analyst) | 1.7% | Up from 1.2% |
| Actual 2026 COLA (For Comparison) | 2.8% | – |
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.2% over the last 12 months. For the month of February, the index that determines Social Security COLAs increased 0.5% prior to seasonal adjustment.
Meanwhile, retired independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson this morning adjusted her monthly 2027 COLA forecast from 1.2% last month to 1.7% this month, but warns that rising gas prices could raise her forecast even more starting next month. The two monthly forecasts from Johnson and TSCL are not usually so far apart, showing a spread greater than a percentage point.
Johnson said she is closely watching those oil prices, as the CPI-W used to calculate the COLA is weighted more heavily for gasoline. Wednesday’s updated CPI data analyzes February numbers, predating the recent March surge in oil prices tied to the war in Iran. Following the start of the war on Feb. 28, crude oil climbed sharply amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
“Geo/political tensions are driving up the price of oil right now which will continue to drive up my estimates of the COLA,” Johnson said. She is also watching for continued tariff-related prices hikes, shortages of certain items due to supply chain disruptions, as well as continued high costs—especially for beef—at the supermarket.
She also noted that home heating oil prices in February were up 6.2%, natural gas up 10.9% and the cost of electricity up 4.8%.
In its latest monthly COLA forecast press release issued this morning, TSCL is sounding the alarm about Social Security’s funding creeping into dangerous territory. The organization points to Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund now being set to deplete a year earlier than previously estimated—in 2032, not in 2033—according to a Feb. 2026 report from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Unless Congress passes Social Security reform before this deadline, it will trigger a 24% automatic benefits cut. That means someone who receives a monthly benefits check of $2,000 would see it drop by $480 to $1,520.
“Years of lackluster COLAs and a looming Social Security insolvency crisis, with its 24% automatic benefits cuts, puts a double squeeze on seniors.”
TSCL’s Shannon Benton
“Years of lackluster COLAs and a looming Social Security insolvency crisis, with its 24% automatic benefits cuts, puts a double squeeze on seniors. Older Americans already feel like their benefits don’t keep up with inflation, so this risks putting them further and further behind, pushing many into poverty,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton.
Even before potential benefit cuts, most seniors think their benefits are falling behind inflation. According to TSCL’s research, 58% of seniors fear that fast-rising inflation will drive up their spending and force them to deplete their retirement savings early. That percentage only goes up among seniors experiencing financial stress.
TSCL also says a potential benefits cut would push many seniors into poverty. More than four in five Americans over the age of 65 see Social Security’s looming insolvency as a very or extremely concerning issue, according to TSCL’s research. If automatic benefits cut occurred, 73% say they would struggle to pay monthly bills, 68% would cut back on food or groceries, and 52% would skip or delay medical care or prescriptions.
“Solutions to both the COLA and Social Security’s insolvency are on the table. Most of them are common sense, and many are popular among seniors,” Benton points out. “For example, 77% of seniors support eliminating the $184,500 cap on income subject to Social Security taxation, with both Republicans and Democrats broadly in favor. According to the Social Security Administration’s Chief Actuary, this would extend Social Security’s solvency by 68 years, through 2090.”
For seniors 65 and over who get their health insurance coverage through Medicare, Medicare premiums are taken directly from Social Security payments. Those premiums rose substantially in 2026, going from $185 in 2025 to $202.90 in 2026. This means retirees saw their costs increase by close to 10%. For retirees who receive the average monthly Social Security benefit of $2,071 in 2026, the $17.90 in extra premiums take up nearly a third of their monthly $57.99 benefits increase.
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index numbers (CPI). The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks the costs of a basket of goods and services that are part of this financial index. By seeing how much all of these goods and services cost, and comparing that number to CPI numbers from prior months, the BLS can get an estimate for the economic inflation that is occurring.
The official Social Security COLA for the next year is calculated based on CPI-W data from the third quarter of the current year (July, August and September), meaning the official 2027 COLA will not be announced until mid-October 2026. Social Security adds the inflation for each month together, determines the average and compares that to the average from the fourth quarter a year ago. The percentage of change in the CPI-W is used to determine the COLA adjustment payable starting with the check received in January of the following year.
The next monthly update on 2027 COLA forecasts will come on April 10, the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI data for March.
SEE ALSO:
• Forecasters Predict 2027 Social Security COLA at 1.8% Or 2.8%
• 2025 Inflation Rate Lowest Since 2020 as Average 2026 Social Security Checks Top $2K
• 2026 Medicare Part B Increase to Eat Up Much of Social Security COLA Raise
Veteran financial services industry journalist Brian Anderson joined 401(k) Specialist as Managing Editor in January 2019. He has led editorial content for a variety of well-known properties including Insurance Forums, Life Insurance Selling, National Underwriter Life & Health, and Senior Market Advisor. He has always maintained a focus on providing readers with timely, useful information intended to help them build their business.