Americans Predict Needing $1.46M in Retirement
As cost-of-living increases and medical expenses grow, coupled with longer life expectancies and approaching Social Security insolvency, U.S. adults are worried about their financial future. Some even believe they’ll need more savings to retire comfortably—up to $1.46 million.
A new report from Northwestern Mutual found that Americans’ “magic number” to retire comfortably increased by $200,000 in 2026, from $1.26 million in 2025 to its current $1.46 million figure.
The number is now back to its 2024 figure, when survey respondents predicted needing $1.46 million to retire. In 2023, that number was $1.27 million and $1.25 million in 2022.
“The new ‘magic number’ reflects a convergence of factors – from persistent inflation and longer life expectancies to uncertainty about the future of Social Security,” said John Roberts, chief field officer at Northwestern Mutual, in a statement. “Retirement is increasingly complex, and Americans are responding by setting higher expectations for what they’ll need. What matters now is pairing those expectations with a thoughtful, comprehensive financial plan that will enable them to reach their unique goals.”
The report highlights a growing retirement crisis, exacerbated by reports of impending Social Security insolvency and growing inflation. While industry experts have been keen to discredit the looming crisis, the reality is that Americans are increasingly worried about their financial futures.
Separate from Northwestern Mutual’s report, multiple research findings show a lack of financial confidence among adults. Four-in-ten U.S. adults in a Pew Research Center report said they were not confident in their ability to have enough income and assets to last throughout retirement, while some believed they wouldn’t be able to retire at all.
This sentiment was even more pronounced among lower-income groups and Black and Hispanic adults. Over half (57%) of adults with lower incomes in Pew’s study said they were uncertain about their retirement finances, compared to 38% of adults with middle incomes and 15% of those with upper incomes.
Half of Hispanic adults and 41% of Black adults also reported feeling uncertain about retirement finances, compared with 37% of white adults and 30% of Asian adults.
In Northwestern Mutual’s report, 46% of Americans say they don’t expect to be financially prepared for retirement, while nearly half (48%) believe it is somewhat or very likely they will outlive their savings. This concern is greatest among Millennials, at 55%, and Gen Xers at 50%.
This fear, fueled by the increased cost-of-living, economic uncertainty, and longer life spans, has led many to believe they’ll need even more savings to afford a comfortable retirement.
While Northwestern Mutual notes that “there is no universal retirement number for everyone,” the firm recommends that savers replace around 80% of their pre-retirement income, based on their individual goals and circumstances, when they choose to retire, their living environment, and they type of lifestyle they plan to maintain over their retirement.
Working with a professional could also help in building a financial plan, Northwestern Mutual adds. Those with an advisor plan to retire at age 63.7, or roughly two-and-a-half years sooner than Americans without an advisor, at 66.1. Seventy-four percent of Americans with an advisor also believe they’ll be financially ready for retirement, compared to 43% of those without an advisor.
“These figures paint a picture of retirement that may stretch 30 to 40 years or longer,” said Roberts. “As people plan to live longer, their money needs to work longer, too. Planning for longevity isn’t just about accumulating more – it’s about building a strategy that can sustain income, manage risk, and adapt over time. That’s where professional guidance from a trusted advisor can make a significant difference.”
Other recommendations, as reported by the firm include:
- The 25x Rule: Saving roughly 25 times a person’s expected annual spending. Someone with $1.46 million saved would be able to generate about $58,000 in annual retirement income.
- The $1,000-a-Month Rule: Every $1,000 of desired monthly retirement spending translates to $300,000 the individual should have saved. A $1.46 million nest egg would provide approximately $4,800 in retirement income per month.
- The 4% Rule: An individual may withdraw 4% of their retirement savings in the first year and withdraw the same amount (adjusted for inflation) for about the next 30 years. Four percent of $1.46 million is approximately $58,000 in annual retirement income.
Amanda Umpierrez is the Managing Editor of 401(k) Specialist magazine. She is a financial services reporter with nearly a decade of experience and a passion for telling stories and reporting news. She is originally from Queens, New York, but now resides in Denver, Colorado.