Lord knows, President Trump likes to tweet, and few garnered more quizzical interest than his famous “covfefe” comment in the spring of 2017.
Was he under duress and signaling for help? Was it a symptom of a stroke? Many wondered and just as many mocked the cryptic post, only to find that it was simply a mistake, a variation of the “pocket dial” too many of us make in a given week.
Recognizing the president’s penchant for digital pique, J.P. Morgan released the Volfefe Index in an analyst note on Friday, which aims to quantify the market impact of the Commander-in-Chief’s social media musings.
Analyzing bond market movement, and interest rate volatility, in particular, J.P. Morgan analysts found that the index “explains a measurable fraction of the moves in implied rate volatility for 2-year and 5-year Treasurys,” CNBC reports.
“This makes rough sense, as much of the president’s tweets have been focused on the Federal Reserve, and as trade tensions are broadly seen as, first and foremost, impactful on near-term economic performance and, likewise, the Fed’s reaction to such developments,” the authors of the J.P. Morgan report wrote.
“Trump’s market-moving messages most often address trade and monetary policy, with keywords including ‘China,’ ‘billion’ and ‘products. These tweets are increasingly less likely to receive favorable responses, such as likes or retweets, from the president’s followers,” the network added.
Frequency
It notes that since his election in 2016, Trump has averaged more than 10 tweets a day to his nearly 64 million followers. CNBC found roughly 14,000 total over that period associated with his personal account, of which more than 10,000 occurred after the 2017 inauguration.
Out of about 4,000 non-retweets occurring during market hours from 2018 to the present, only 146 moved the market.
With more than 20 years serving financial markets, John Sullivan is the former editor-in-chief of Investment Advisor magazine and retirement editor of ThinkAdvisor.com. Sullivan is also the former editor of Boomer Market Advisor and Bank Advisor magazines, and has a background in the insurance and investment industries in addition to his journalism roots.
