A flood of homes will come on the market in the next 20 years as Baby Boomers age enough to affect local economies in traditional retirement areas, new analysis from Zillow has found.
The real estate and rental website notes that about a third of America’s homes are owned by those age 60 and older, and the “Silver Tsunami is estimated to hit in earnest as the number of seniors who pass away each year rises during the 2020s and 2030s.”
In the decade from 2007 to 2017, roughly 730,000 U.S. homes were released into the market each year by seniors aged 60 or older.
From 2017 to 2027 and from 2027 to 2037 that number is set to rise to 920,000 and 1.17 million per year, respectively. This means more than 27% of today’s owner-occupied homes will become available by 2037.
“While virtually all areas will feel the effects to some degree—between one-fifth and one-third of the current owner-occupied housing stock was impacted in every metro analyzed—this wave won’t hit all at once and won’t strike all markets equally,” Zillow adds.
Retirement areas like Florida and Arizona are likely to feel the sharpest impact. If demand erodes because fewer people choose to retire there in the coming years, those areas might end up with excess housing.
Also heavily impacted will be regions like the Rust Belt, which saw younger people move away in recent decades, leaving older generations to make up a larger share of the population.
Some regions will be far less affected. These include Salt Lake City, where a much smaller share of homeowners are in their golden years, as well as Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Houston—all of which are vibrant but relatively inexpensive places that tend to attract younger residents looking for an affordable alternative to expensive coastal cities.
10 most impacted areas
The following are the top 10 markets that will have the most homes released to the market by seniors (on a percentage basis):
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 1 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. | 15.2% | 33.2% |
Tucson-Nogales, Ariz.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 2 | Tucson-Nogales, Ariz. | 14.8% | 32.6% |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, Fla.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 3 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, Fla. | 15.2% | 31.9% |
Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, Fla.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 4 | Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, Fla. | 14.4% | 31.9% |
Dayton-Springfield-Sidney, Ohio.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 5 | Dayton-Springfield-Sidney, Ohio. | 14.3% | 31.3% |
Knoxville-Morristown-Sevierville, Tenn.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 6 | Knoxville-Morristown-Sevierville, Tenn. | 13.5% | 30.8% |
Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, Penn.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 7 | Pittsburgh-New Castle-Weirton, Penn. | 13.6% | 30.2% |
Cleveland-Akron-Canton, Ohio.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 8 | Cleveland-Akron-Canton, Ohio. | 13.2% | 29.9% |
Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, New Mexico.
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 9 | Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Las Vegas, New Mexico. | 12.7% | 29.6% |
Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, North Carolina
| Metro area | By 2027 | By 2037 | |
| 10 | Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, North Carolina | 13.3% | 29.5% |
With more than 20 years serving financial markets, John Sullivan is the former editor-in-chief of Investment Advisor magazine and retirement editor of ThinkAdvisor.com. Sullivan is also the former editor of Boomer Market Advisor and Bank Advisor magazines, and has a background in the insurance and investment industries in addition to his journalism roots.
