It’s a sign of our bifurcated times.
Every opposition candidate to announce has tacked far left (if not already there) as an understandable reaction to Trump. If more moderate Dems don’t declare—Sherrod Brown, Joe Biden—it’ll be a Nixon/McGovern retread with the probability of a similar outcome.
Not that the candidates are necessarily what they seem—Trump was a Republican, Reformer and Democrat before rejoining the GOP fold.
And the not-at-all surprising announcement from Bernie Sanders now has a socialist with three houses and a seven-figure net worth who flies private once again acting as perennial primary spoil (we’re reminded of French Socialist head Dominique Strauss-Kahn who had a lifetime deal with Air France to fly first class and occupied $3,000 a night hotel suites. The proletarian revolution never looked so good.)
Which is what’s it’s all about. Loopy Louisiana political pest James Carville had it right when asked about central themes for Bill Clinton’s successful campaign, “The economy, stupid.”
Despite going dark on earlier boasts about pensions and prosperity, Trump’s ‘How’s your 401k?’ troll still holds. The Dow broke 18,000 prior to the 2016 election. Today it’s just south of 26,000.
The obvious answer, therefore, is “Well, very well.”
Clinton punked Bush over the latter’s brief recession. Obama gained an avalanche of momentum from the 2008 market crisis. It could be credibly argued that Bush Jr. was at least partly the result of the tech bubble that burst in March 2000 (although Clinton fatigue and a Frankenstein-like Gore played prominent roles).
We can’t help but love that the 401k is a proxy for the nation’s overall economic health, and if it holds, 2020 is Trump’s for the taking.
If it tanks, look for a ‘sotsialist’ (ruskie for socialist) to occupy the Oval Office. With all the polls, pundits, consultants, speeches, debates, donors and campaign dollars, it really is that simple, and with all the talk of Russian interference, unbelievably ironic.
With more than 20 years serving financial markets, John Sullivan is the former editor-in-chief of Investment Advisor magazine and retirement editor of ThinkAdvisor.com. Sullivan is also the former editor of Boomer Market Advisor and Bank Advisor magazines, and has a background in the insurance and investment industries in addition to his journalism roots.
