During a retirement planning seminar held the day before the Nov. 4, 2016 election, Samuel Henson admits he had it wrong, as many did.
Henson, SVP-Director of Legislative & Regulatory Affairs and ERISA Counsel, Lockton Companies, remembers saying: “The path to victory for Trump is so unlikely, I’ll spend most of our time talking about a Hillary Clinton presidency.”
During his Excel 401(k) 2020 Digital Series Session, where he provided a government retirement update on Wednesday, Henson owned that 4-year-old oversight in advance of President Donald Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“I clearly could not stick my foot further into my own mouth,” Henson said, while cautiously NOT predicting a winner in this year’s presidential election.
Henson shared a current Electoral College polling map showing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a presumed 283-101 lead over Trump with 270 needed to win, but was quick to note former Vice President Biden’s double-digit national polling lead over President Trump is not too far off from where Hillary Clinton was at this time during the 2016 election cycle.
“Again, anything can happen, and things did happen strangely the last time around, but that’s where the polling map is sitting right now,” Henson said.
He pointed out that Trump’s win in 2016 came in some really key states that a lot of people didn’t expect him to carry in the Electoral College, and noted that Clinton made the mistake of assuming victory in some states where Republicans traditionally didn’t fare well.
He singled out Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona as this year’s key battleground states while adding that 2016 “close call states” New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine are all in play as well.
The real question, Henson said Wednesday, is whether Trump can continue to build momentum in those key swing states that he carried the last time.
Henson had plenty of additional ground to cover during the session, providing an update on a wide variety of key issues from Washington and their impact on retirement plans. In addition to a look ahead at the 2020 election and the impact of potential outcomes, he covered topics such as CARES Act and SECURE Act guidance, pending legislative initiatives, regulatory/Department of Labor news and guidance needed, PEPs, COVID-19 relief implications and the final E-Delivery rule.
Henson’s full rundown on all of these topics is available by listening to the on-demand reply of the 53-minute virtual session, quickly and easily available with a simple, free registration for the Excel 401(k) 2020 Digital Series. But for the purposes of this article, we’ll focus on the election forecast portion.
Consequential election
“Elections have consequences. For us in the retirement industry, clearly this election will have consequences in a lot of different ways,” Henson said, specifying the presidential level, in the Senate and the House, and “certainly with regard to whatever administration comes into place, and their role in directing the enforcement agencies in what their agendas are.”
Henson pointed out some differences in this election cycle compared to 2106. For instance, now Trump has a record, and the advantage of being a sitting President with all of the constant media presence it brings. Henson said the value of that alone far exceeds the campaign money both candidates have raised.
He also said Biden’s polling numbers are better than Clinton’s were at this point, and noted that Biden’s “ground game” is stronger, having learned lessons from Clinton’s defeat (such as not to assume victory and therefore not campaign in key states).
But the Trump campaign also learned a lesson from previous campaigns—specifically former President Barack Obama’s campaigns that generated a huge groundswell of support from people who were energized to go out and actively campaign. The Trump campaign is getting people to do that for him.
“Trump is knocking on doors,” Henson said, whereas the Biden campaign is heeding COVID protocols and not knocking on doors.
There is also uncertainty in the amount of “Silent Trump Supporters”—those who don’t have the yard signs or attend the rallies, but are still certain to vote for Trump.
“How big is that number? We don’t know,” Henson said. “But they are out there just like they were the last time around.”
So there are differences between this year and 2016, Henson said, but stopped short of predicting whether these differences will translate into a clear win for either candidate.
Henson also talked about differences in Trump retirement policies, largely viewed as “pro-plan sponsor, and are definitely pro-financial services,” (mentioning DOL actions such as the vacated Obama-era fiduciary rule proposal, the since-proposed “watered down” fiduciary rule, the ESG rule, the proxy voting rule, and the private equity guidance), and potential Biden retirement policies, including the controversial concept of replacing the existing tax-deferred retirement system with tax credits in an attempt to “equalize saving incentives” for middle class workers.
Henson also offered his take on whether Republicans can maintain control of the Senate on election day, and said it’s extremely unlikely that Democrats would lose the House.
But depending on the outcome of the election, Henson said if some of the proposed Department of Labor rules get enacted before the before the end of the year, you may very well see some legislative attempts to address those.
“As you go out and talk with clients, I think it’s worth mentioning these issues in the upcoming weeks, and then certainly depending on the outcome in November, we’ll have a lot of opportunity to talk about what we think is going to happen as a result of this,” Henson concluded.
Again, much more detail is available in the on-demand replay of the session.
Veteran financial services industry journalist Brian Anderson joined 401(k) Specialist as Managing Editor in January 2019. He has led editorial content for a variety of well-known properties including Insurance Forums, Life Insurance Selling, National Underwriter Life & Health, and Senior Market Advisor. He has always maintained a focus on providing readers with timely, useful information intended to help them build their business.
